A large set of 5350 trend following technica! trading rules is applied to LIFFE and CSCE cocoa futures prices, and to the Pound-Dollar exchange rate, in the period 1983:1-1997:6. We find that 72% of the trading rules generates positive profits, even when correcting for transaction and borrowing...

This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control</I>. Volume 31(6), pp. 1938-1970.<P> We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all...</p></i>

A large set of 5350 trend following technica! trading rules is applied to LIFFEand CSCE cocoa futures prices, and tothe Pound-Dollar exchange rate, in the period 1983:1-1997:6. We find that 72% ofthe trading rules generatespositive profits, even when correcting for transaction and borrowing...

We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...

This paper provides a continuous record interpretation of the block local to unity asymptotics proposed recently by Phillips, Moon and Xiao (2001). It also demonstrates that in the case of homogeneous dynamics and a fixed number of blocks, the new asymptotic approximation coincides with the...

This paper considers tests for a unit root when the innovations follow a near- integrated GARCH process. We compare the asymptotic properties of the likelihood ratio statistic with that of the least-squares based Dickey-Fuller statistic. We first use asymptotics where the GARCH variance process...

This paper provides an extensive Monte-Carlo comparison of several contemporary cointegration tests. Apart from the familiar Gaussian based tests of Johansen, we also consider tests based on non-Gaussian quasi-likelihoods. Moreover, we compare the performance of these parametric tests with tests...

The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector Brownian motions is approximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non-Gaussian...

This paper provides an extensive Monte-Carlo comparison of severalcontemporary cointegration tests. Apart from the familiar Gaussian basedtests of Johansen, we also consider tests based on non-Gaussianquasi-likelihoods. Moreover, we compare the performance of these parametrictests with tests...

It is well established that the shocks driving many key macro-economic and financial variables display time-varying volatility. In this paper we consider estimation and hypothesis testing on the coefficients of the co-integrating relations and the adjustment coefficients in vector...