Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <A HREF="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092753981400098X">'Journal of Empirical Finance'</A> (2014). Volume 29, pages 435-447. <P> We model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for...</p></a>

This paper analyses Net Private Capital Flows to LICs incorporating the recent surge in FDI between 2000 and 2006. We show that including country-specific effects in a paneldata setup resolves the Lucas Paradox, at least for LICs. Our results suggest that openness is among the most important...

This paper analyses Net Private Capital Flows to LICs incorporating the recent surge in FDI between 2000 and 2006. We show that including country-specific effects in a paneldata setup resolves the Lucas Paradox, at least for LICs. Our results suggest that openness is among the most important...

Standard risk metrics tend to underestimate the true risks of hedge funds becauseof serial correlation in the reported returns. Getmansky et al. (2004) derive mean,variance, Sharpe ratio, and beta formulae adjusted for serial correlation. Followingtheir lead, adjusted downside and global...

Bank holding companies (BHCs) invest in risky projects through bank entities or sell projects for a fee, thus engaging in shadow banking. BHCs can increase their fee income by guaranteeing sold projects with a recourse to the bank's balance sheet. When the expected guarantee repayments depend on...

Islamic strictures require investors to share risks with the entrepreneurs they finance. Sukuk (Islamic securities) come mostly in two varieties, musharakah (basically a joint venture agreement) and ijarah (more like an operational lease agreement). Yet defaults did happen, even in the case of...

This discussion paper resulted in a chapter in: (K. Bocker (Ed.)) 'Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting - Volume II: Examples and Applications from Finance', 2010, London: Riskbooks.<P> This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of...</p>

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....