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Sorting and the Output Loss due to Search Frictions
Gautier, Pieter A.; Teulings, Coen N. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011
. This model yields a simple relationshipbetween (i) the unemployment rate, (ii) the value of non-market time, and (iii … andallow for measurement error. The estimated wage dispersion and mismatch for theUS is consistent with an unemployment rate of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257030
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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment
Abbring, Jaap H.; Berg, Gerard J. van den; Ours, Jan C. van - Tinbergen Instituut - 1997
focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration …, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial … composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate which can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257090
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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment
Abbring, Jaap H.; Berg, Gerard J. van den; Ours, Jan C. van - Tinbergen Institute - 1997
focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration …, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial … composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate which can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136894
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Sorting and the Output Loss due to Search Frictions
Gautier, Pieter A.; Teulings, Coen N. - Tinbergen Institute - 2011
. This model yields a simple relationship between (i) the unemployment rate, (ii) the value of non-market time, and (iii) the … and allow for measurement error. The estimated wage dispersion for the US is consistent with an unemployment rate of 4 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838544
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Nonlinear Forecasting with Many Predictors using Kernel Ridge Regression
Exterkate, Peter; Groenen, Patrick J.F.; Heij, Christiaan; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011
This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256969
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Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts
Butter, Frank A.G. den; Jansen, Pieter W. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2008
This paper has led to a publication in <I>Applied Financial Economics</I>, 2013, 23(9), 749-765.<P> This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257114
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Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions
Chang, Chia-Lin; Bruijn, Bert de; Franses, Philip Hans; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2013). Volume 29(4), pages 622-627.<P> It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions....</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257278
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Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses
Teulings, Coen N.; Zubanov, Nick - Tinbergen Institute - 2010
There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484062
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Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts
Butter, Frank A.G. den; Jansen, Pieter W. - Tinbergen Institute - 2008
This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144546
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Nonlinear Forecasting with Many Predictors using Kernel Ridge Regression
Exterkate, Peter; Groenen, Patrick J.F.; Heij, Christiaan; … - Tinbergen Institute - 2011
This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838536