We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

Tobacco excise has grown strongly over the last few years as significant increases in the excise rate have been only partly offset by declining rates of smoking. This paper examines historical trends in tobacco excise, focussing on the recent past including the impact of significant policy...