Peak oil demand has become the hot new topic for oil market analysts but as always, runs the risk of being subject to superficial analysis, just as peak oil supply was. The primary arguments come from climate change activists who believe fossil fuel consumption must drop sharply and from...

With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies....

This paper uses a new empirical strategy to identify oil supply news shocks within a Non-Causal VAR model of standard global oil market variables. These shocks explain most of the movements in oil production over a long but finite time horizon. Our findings highlight the prominent role of...

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To...

This paper evaluates the impacts of oil market shocks on the economy using a structural vector error correction model of the United States (US) economy. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten endogenous oil market and macroeconomic variables. Supply and demand driven oil market...

This paper uses inventory data from financial accounts to explore whether companies involved in the physical oil market were speculating in the run-up to 2008. Using quarterly inventory data over the period 1990Q4 to 2012Q1 and a sample of 15 of the largest listed oil companies in the world, we...

The authors demonstrate that the United States profits handsomely in all circumstances by imposing an embargo on imports of foreign crude oil. The US removes its exposure to foreign oil supply shocks and recovers deadweight lost producers surplus. The embargo plan will lead to greater domestic...

Energy market volatility affects macroeconomic conditions and can unduly affect the economies of energy-producing countries. Large price swings can be detrimental to both producers and consumers. Market volatility can cause infrastructure and capacity investments to be delayed, employment...

Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility is crucial in many financial and investment applications. The main purpose of this paper is to review and assess the current state of oil market volatility knowledge. It highlights the properties and characteristics of the oil price volatility...

Crude oil is one of the hardest markets to predict because there are so many conflicting crosscurrents that affect its price including supply and demand, the health of the global economy, geopolitics and the global monetary and regulatory environment. Whenever a conflict occurs in an...