The single most important driver of shifting dynamics in world oil markets is China. It alone will continue to account for most of the world demand growth throughout this decade and probably the next. By October 2013, China's net oil imports are projected to exceed those of the United States on...

Non Gaussian densities suitable for multivariate generalizations are fitted to daily oil price returns. The absolute and comparative goodness of fit of the several estimated models, is assessed with descriptive and formal methods. A new statistical density forecast test is introduced for that...

During the 1970s, oil market models offered a framework for understanding the growing market power being exercised by major oil producing countries. Few such models have been developed in recent years. Moreover, most large institutions do not use models directly for explaining recent oil price...

The role of unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands and extra-heavy oil) is anticipated to increase in the global oil market. Although we are facing a scarcity of conventional (low cost) oil resources, unconventional oil resources might manage (for a period of time) to supply constraints in...

The study investigates the relationship between oil export earnings and Nigeria's external debt. The intent is to empirically determine the relationship between external debt and oil revenue using the data from 1970 to 2006. The model which was econometrically estimated and simulated, found out...

Does OPEC still matter? How do OPEC and non-OPEC oil production, global oil demand, and the role of oil as a financial asset influence oil prices? What is the mechanism through which China affects oil prices? These questions reveal the need for a better understanding of oil market dynamics. Our...

I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks...

Over the past five years the U.S. domestic crude benchmark, WTI, diverged considerably from its foreign counterpart, Brent. Some studies pointed to the crude oil export ban as the main culprit for this divergence, but pipeline capacity was also scarce during this time. To understand the drivers...

This paper uses inventory data from financial accounts to explore whether companies involved in the physical oil market were speculating in the run-up to 2008. Using quarterly inventory data over the period 1990Q4 to 2012Q1 and a sample of 15 of the largest listed oil companies in the world, we...

Peak oil demand has become the hot new topic for oil market analysts but as always, runs the risk of being subject to superficial analysis, just as peak oil supply was. The primary arguments come from climate change activists who believe fossil fuel consumption must drop sharply and from...