I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks...

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To...

Peak oil demand has become the hot new topic for oil market analysts but as always, runs the risk of being subject to superficial analysis, just as peak oil supply was. The primary arguments come from climate change activists who believe fossil fuel consumption must drop sharply and from...

The question is examined whether OPEC is in a position to collect a risk premium to effectively insure others against a macroeconomic downturn, which may, in turn, result from a rise in the price of crude oil. Contingent exchange is modeled such that parties whose consumption is elastic with...

Does OPEC still matter? How do OPEC and non-OPEC oil production, global oil demand, and the role of oil as a financial asset influence oil prices? What is the mechanism through which China affects oil prices? These questions reveal the need for a better understanding of oil market dynamics. Our...

I examine evidence for a recent acceleration in the impact of technological change in the extraction of oil and natural gas on OPEC, associated with hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. I estimate world demand for and non OPEC supply of crude oil simultaneously, representing...

Although global oil demand growth was exceptional during 2015 at 1.7mn b/d, it began to weaken during the last quarter of the year across all markets with the exception of India and the Middle East. We believe demand will grow by 1.1mn b/d in 2016. Non-OPEC supply grew by 1mn b/d in 2015 thanks...

This paper evaluates the impacts of oil market shocks on the economy using a structural vector error correction model of the United States (US) economy. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten endogenous oil market and macroeconomic variables. Supply and demand driven oil market...

This paper uses inventory data from financial accounts to explore whether companies involved in the physical oil market were speculating in the run-up to 2008. Using quarterly inventory data over the period 1990Q4 to 2012Q1 and a sample of 15 of the largest listed oil companies in the world, we...

This paper estimates a dynamic model of the world oil market and tests whether OPEC countries colluded and whether non-OPEC countries behaved oligopolistically over the period 1970-2004. Results of the analysis by decade support OPEC countries colluding as the dominant cartel producer and...