With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies....

Does OPEC still matter? How do OPEC and non-OPEC oil production, global oil demand, and the role of oil as a financial asset influence oil prices? What is the mechanism through which China affects oil prices? These questions reveal the need for a better understanding of oil market dynamics. Our...

The question is examined whether OPEC is in a position to collect a risk premium to effectively insure others against a macroeconomic downturn, which may, in turn, result from a rise in the price of crude oil. Contingent exchange is modeled such that parties whose consumption is elastic with...

I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks...

This paper estimates a dynamic model of the world oil market and tests whether OPEC countries colluded and whether non-OPEC countries behaved oligopolistically over the period 1970-2004. Results of the analysis by decade support OPEC countries colluding as the dominant cartel producer and...

Saudi Arabia has been instrumental in the collapse of the crude oil prices by refusing to cut production and also prevailing on OPEC not to do so. This has so far inflicted incalculable damage on the global economy. Saudi Arabia has taken a huge gamble by flooding the global oil market with...

With tremendous crude oil reserves rivaling, if not exceeding, those of Saudi Arabia, lowest production costs in the world and the biggest potential for capacity expansion of anywhere else, Iraq may be destined to dominate the world oil market in the second and third decades of the 21st century...

Popular instruments to regulate consumption of oil in the transport sector include fuel taxes, biofuel requirements, and fuel efficiency. Their impacts on oil consumption and price vary. One important factor is the market setting. We show that if market power is present in the oil market, the...

Although global oil demand growth was exceptional during 2015 at 1.7mn b/d, it began to weaken during the last quarter of the year across all markets with the exception of India and the Middle East. We believe demand will grow by 1.1mn b/d in 2016. Non-OPEC supply grew by 1mn b/d in 2015 thanks...

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To...