The paper studies the return-volatility relationship in a range of commodities. We develop a commodity price model and show that the volatility of price changes can be positively or negatively related to demand shocks. An “inverse leverage effect” – the volatility is higher following...

In this paper, we employ an unobserved components model to disentangle the long-term trend from cyclical movements in international benchmark crude oil prices using data from 1861 to 2010. The in-sample estimation of the model identifies a deterministic quadratic trend and two types of cycles,...

This paper provides both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of whether the Chinese oil companies have “overpaid” than international oil companies in overseas asset acquisitions. By controlling oil price and a number of asset- and deal-specific attributes that are known to affect the...