This study analyses oil price movements through the lens of an agnostic random forest model, which is based on 1,000 regression trees. It shows that this highly disciplined, yet flexible computational model reduces in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by 65% relative to a standard linear...

I investigate sovereign risk management using expected utility theory. A proposition is derived under which conditions which degree of hedging is optimal. An application to the case of Russia shows that a risk-acceptant attitude can serve as an explanation of the decisions to bail out Rosneft...

This analysis uses the weekly natural gas storage report to investigate the quickness, and test the accuracy, of liquidity taking high-frequency traders (HFT) in modern markets. We find those who trade within the first 50 milliseconds accurately incorporate the information contained in the...

In this paper, we study the relationship between futures and spot prices in the European carbon markets from the cost-of-carry hypothesis. The aim is to investigate the extent of efficiency market. The three main European markets (BlueNext, EEX and ECX) are analyzed during Phase II, covering the...

This paper introduces a new method for measuring financial market efficiency: the so- called intermittency coefficient, a parameter of the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001). As the intermittency coefficient can quantify the degree of nonlinear deviation from a random walk, we...

This analysis provides an international perspective geared towards understanding the future demands being placed on the world's electricity system. It focuses upon the household or residential demand for electricity in a number of high-income and middle-income countries that may raise power...

This paper constitutes an analysis on Indian stock market returns. The conducted study probes the nexus between returns on four stock market indices, namely Sensex (BSE 30), Energy Index (BSE ENERGY), Oil and Gas Index (BSE OIL & GAS), and Capital Goods (BSE CG), and returns on traded energy...

This study examines the financial risks posed by energy and environmental markets and how these risks are addressed by current regulatory regimes and legislation. This is undertaken using a legislative analysis of the financial regulation of energy and environmental markets, drawing on ‘grey'...

In many practical statistical situations, it is desirable to restrict the flexibility of nonparametric regression models to accommodate prior information. We propose an estimator for regression models with a smoothness penalty and constraints imposed by the nature of the problem. Our estimator...

The production of electricity on the basis of renewable energy technologies is a classic example of an impure public good. It is often discriminatively financed by industrial and household consumers, such as in Germany, where the energy-intensive sector benefits from far-reaching exemptions,...