I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks...

China’s global quest for resources, in particular oil and natural gas, has received unprecedented worldwide attention and scrutiny. This is partly because of China’s own high-profile, active energy diplomacy, its national oil companies’ acquisitions in the key exporting regions of oil and...

Using the aggregate number of oil rigs as a proxy of oil investment, I evaluate the bidirectional relationship between oil prices and oil investment in OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. We take advantage of Bayesian estimation techniques and innovation accounting to incorporate the long run dynamics...

We estimate time-varying income and price elasticities for energy demand for a 26- country, middle-income (primarily non-OECD) balanced panel that spans 1996-2014. To do so, we employ a recently developed nonparametric local linear dummy estimation method that estimates the trend and coefficient...

OPEC+ has set a goal of establishing a stable oil market and achieving a reasonable oil price that benefits all industry stakeholders and the global citizenry. But what price is reasonable? We examine the effect of the oil-price threshold on external balances with the aim of evaluating a...

Energy intensity in the OECD manufacturing sector has been falling since the oil crises in the 1970s. Studies in energy intensity identified that spatial considerations are important, and there exists a great deal of heterogeneity in energy intensities amongst countries and sectors. This paper...

This analysis provides an international perspective geared towards understanding the future demands being placed on the world's electricity system. It focuses upon the household or residential demand for electricity in a number of high-income and middle-income countries that may raise power...

Quantitative models, such as computable general equilibrium (CGE), that are increasingly used to inform policy processes rely on a number of assumptions concerning how good and services are produced. Previous research has shown that the elasticity of substitution between inputs and the structure...

This paper, in the form of a treatise, estimates a U.S. shale-oil production trend forecast and explores potential consequences of that trend on U.S. and World macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects. It explains the economics of the Hubbert curve including a literature review both pro and...

This paper uses a new empirical strategy to identify oil supply news shocks within a Non-Causal VAR model of standard global oil market variables. These shocks explain most of the movements in oil production over a long but finite time horizon. Our findings highlight the prominent role of...