This paper uses inventory data from financial accounts to explore whether companies involved in the physical oil market were speculating in the run-up to 2008. Using quarterly inventory data over the period 1990Q4 to 2012Q1 and a sample of 15 of the largest listed oil companies in the world, we...

Using the aggregate number of oil rigs as a proxy of oil investment, I evaluate the bidirectional relationship between oil prices and oil investment in OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. We take advantage of Bayesian estimation techniques and innovation accounting to incorporate the long run dynamics...

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To...

OPEC+ has set a goal of establishing a stable oil market and achieving a reasonable oil price that benefits all industry stakeholders and the global citizenry. But what price is reasonable? We examine the effect of the oil-price threshold on external balances with the aim of evaluating a...

This article investigates the pass-through of global Brent oil notations to fuel prices across the oligopoly of retail majors in Germany. We assemble a high-frequency panel data set that encompasses millions of price observations and allows us to distinguish effects by brand. Upon establishing a...

This paper uses a new empirical strategy to identify oil supply news shocks within a Non-Causal VAR model of standard global oil market variables. These shocks explain most of the movements in oil production over a long but finite time horizon. Our findings highlight the prominent role of...

This study analyses oil price movements through the lens of an agnostic random forest model, which is based on 1,000 regression trees. It shows that this highly disciplined, yet flexible computational model reduces in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by 65% relative to a standard linear...

This paper measures integration of the world crude oil market using two so-called Thick Pen methods: the Thick Pen Measure of Association (TPMA) as well as Multi-Thickness Thick Pen Measure of Association (MTTPMA). They allow one to capture time-varying co-movement of different regional crude...

Around 3 billion people in developing countries rely on woodfuels for their daily cooking needs with profound negative implications for their workload, health, and budget as well as the environment. Improved cooking stove (ICS) technologies appear to be an obvious solution in many cases. In...

This study examines a field experiment in Texas that includes pricing and informational interventions to encourage energy conservation during summer peak load days when the social cost of generation is the highest. We estimate that our critical peak pricing intervention reduces electricity...