With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies....

Oil price shocks affect macroeconomic performance in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The recent research on the oil-macroeconomy relationship in the oil-importing countries shows that oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on their economic growth; the adverse effects of higher...

The aim of this working paper is to apply the Bayesian VAR method to analyse the relationship between oil price movements and GDP in the Czech Republic. To capture the possible indirect channels reflecting the changes in the oil prices, the model includes also the inflation measured by CPI and...

The single most important driver of shifting dynamics in world oil markets is China. It alone will continue to account for most of the world demand growth throughout this decade and probably the next. By October 2013, China's net oil imports are projected to exceed those of the United States on...

Forecasting oil price volatility is considered of major importance for numerous stakeholders, including, policy makers, industries and investors. This paper examines and evaluates the main factors that oil price volatility forecasters should take before constructing their forecasting models....

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To...

The link between stock market prices and oil prices has drawn considerable attention in recent decades because the risk and uncertainties associated with oil price volatility affect investor's portfolios, particularly, those investors seeking to make optimal portfolio allocations. This paper...

We show that the oil market has become closer to \one great pool," in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these quality-related differentials experienced a major structural...

This paper evaluates the impacts of oil market shocks on the economy using a structural vector error correction model of the United States (US) economy. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten endogenous oil market and macroeconomic variables. Supply and demand driven oil market...

This article investigates the pass-through of global Brent oil notations to fuel prices across the oligopoly of retail majors in Germany. We assemble a high-frequency panel data set that encompasses millions of price observations and allows us to distinguish effects by brand. Upon establishing a...