I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single...

This paper addresses Choi and Krishna's (2004) recent empirical test of a bilateral factor content of trade prediction, originally developed by Helpman (1984). I revisit the theory and show that, contrary to common belief, Helpman's paper does not generalize Brecher and Choudhri's 2-country...