We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead...

We consider the stability under adaptive learning of the complete set of solutions to the model x_i=beta(Ei*)(x_i+1) when |beat| 1. In addition to the fundamentals solution, the literature describes both finite-state Markov sunspot solutions and autoregressive solutions depending on an arbitrary...

We examine the nonlinear model x_t = E_t F(x_(t+1)). Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state, hat(x)=F(hat(x)), provided |F'(hat(x)| 1. Despite the importance of indeterminancy in macroeconomics, earlier results have not provided conditions for the existance of adaptively stable...

We consider optimal monetary policy in New Keynesian models with inertia. First order conditions, which we call the MJB-alternative, are found to improve upon the timeless perspective. The MJB-alternative is shown to be the best possible in the sense that it minimizes policymakers' unconditional...

By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, Woodford (1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations generalize to all sunspot equilibria the representations used by Woodford (1990)....