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Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle
Krolzig, Hans-Martin - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 339-351
This paper addresses the issues of identification and dating of the Euro-zone business cycle by using the Markov … growth in the Euro-zone are identified by fitting Markov-switching models to aggregated and single-country Euro-zone real GDP … the smoothed regime probabilities from the Markov-switching models the Euro-zone business cycle is dated and recessions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377542
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Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle
Lommatzsch, Kirsten; Stephan, Sabine - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 399-415
In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377544
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Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach
Astolfi, Roberto; Ladiray, Dominique; Mazzi, Gian Luigi - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 377-398
Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The … given in the paper. An application to the Euro-zone GDP is presented. The same aggregation problem encountered in the case … widely used in the literature, we extracted the cycle indicator for the Euro-zone employing the Baxter-King filter to data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377546
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A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle
Anas, Jacques; Nguiffo-Boyom, Muriel - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 364-376
turning points in the Euro-zone using the Neftçi's approach. The output is a probability index for a forthcoming economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377550
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Trend and Cycle in the Euro-Area: A Permanent-Transitory Decomposition Using a Cointegrated VAR Model
Schumacher, Christian - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 352-363
This paper investigates the Euro-area business cycle using a multivariate autoregressive time series model with cointegration. The cointegration restrictions help to identify permanent and transitory shocks which form the stochastic part of trend and cyclical GDP, respectively. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377551
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Euroland: Besser als befürchtet, aber schlechter als erhofft?
Michaelis, Jochen; Pflüger, Michael - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 71 (2002) 3, pp. 296-311
Die Schaffung der Europäischen Währungsunion hatte in wissenschaftlichen Kreisen heftigste Kontroversen ausgelöst. Der vorliegende Beitrag unternimmt, dreieinhalb Jahre nach dem Beginn der Währungsunion, eine Bestandsaufnahme der Entwicklungen in den diesbezüglich zugrunde liegenden...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377580
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Makroökonomische Implikationen der Mitgliedschaft Deutschlands in der Europäischen Währungsunion
Clausen, Volker; Hayo, Bernd - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 71 (2002) 3, pp. 339-353
Deutschlands im Euroraum findet die deutsche Konjunktur implizit starke Berücksichtigung in der Geldpolitik der EZB. Die Schocks in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377582
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Inflationsprognosen für den Euro-Raum: wie gut sind P*-Modelle?
Gottschalk, Jan; Bröck, Susanne - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 69 (2000) 1, pp. 69-89
Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Grundlagen des P*-Ansatzes und vergleicht seine Prognoseleistung mit derjenigen nicht-monetärer Inflationsindikatoren für den Euro-Raum. Die Relevanz der Quantitätstheorie, die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage und die Rolle von Geldmengen im Transmissionsmechanismus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377457
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Euroland's Trade with Third Countries: An Estimation Based on NIPA Data
Strauß, Hubert - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 434-449
One major shortcoming in Euroland's National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) consists in the missing distinction between exports (imports) on the one hand and dispatches (arrivals) between the member states on the other hand. In this paper "true" NIPA trade is derived from official figures....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377547
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The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Simulation Experiment
Gottschalk, Jan; Stolz, Stéphanie - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 3, pp. 416-433
We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson (2000) shows theoretically that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377548