Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Grundlagen des P*-Ansatzes und vergleicht seine Prognoseleistung mit derjenigen nicht-monetärer Inflationsindikatoren für den Euro-Raum. Die Relevanz der Quantitätstheorie, die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage und die Rolle von Geldmengen im Transmissionsmechanismus...

We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson (2000) shows theoretically that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify its...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business...

[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating...