We study the relation between limit order flow, market order flow and returns. We develop a model where market-makers face inventory risk and adverse selection and show how prices depend on market and limit order flows. In the model, market-makers receive information through trade with customers...

This paper documents a new stylised fact in foreign exchange markets: intraday currency returns display prolonged reversals around the major benchmark fixings, characterised by an appreciation of the U.S. dollar pre-fixing and a depreciation thereafter. Tracing returns around the clock, the...

This paper sheds empirical light on whether sentiment affects the profitability of price momentum strategies. We hypothesize that news that contradicts investors' sentiment causes cognitive dissonance, which slows the diffusion of signals that oppose the direction of sentiment. This phenomenon...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate to what extent mutual fund managers, as an important and representative group of professional investors, are prone to overconfidence and associated behavioural biases such as self-serving attribution. More importantly, we explore how these...

Controlling for numerous attributes tied to default and priced asset risk, including yield, credit spread, bond rating, and maturity, we find that a corporate bond’s book value divided by its market price strongly predicts its return. Bonds with the 20% highest “bond book-to-market ratios”...

Controlling for numerous attributes tied to default and priced asset risk, including yield, credit spread, bond rating, and maturity, we find that a corporate bond’s book value divided by its market price strongly predicts its return. Bonds with the 20% highest “bond book-to-market ratios”...

A long tradition in macro-finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop...

We provide a measure of sparsity for expected returns within the context of classical factor models. Our measure is inversely related to the percentage of active predictors. Empirically, sparsity varies over time and displays an apparent countercyclical behavior. Proxies for financial conditions...