The forecast is based on the following assumptions about the evolution of important variables until 2013: As a consequence of the depreciation of their financial wealth and real property the savings ratio of the US households will increase from 2 percent in 2008 to 6 percent in 2013. The key...

In the period from 1991 to 1995 U. S. interest rates and the value of the dollar are expected to stabilize at the lowest level recorded over the last 25 years; prices of crude oil will exceed the average level of 1985 to 1990 by some 50 percent, but the rise in prices of other raw materials will...

Since 1997, prospects for growth have markedly deteriorated as a consequence of the economic crises in Eastern Asia and Russia, the recession in Japan and the looming financial crisis in Latin America. The chief causes that these four factors share is instability of financial markets in general...

Wide swings in prices of raw materials, of crude oil in particular, have characterized the development of the world economy in the seventies and eighties. This applies not only to shifts in the terms of trade and thus to the distribution of income from international trade, but also to inflation...

The sustained U.S. stock market boom of the 1990s fuelled private consumption in the USA to an extent that it grew at a substantially faster rate than the country's GDP (in 1999, the savings-ratio of private households actually turned negative). At the same time, the gap between the share...

The recent stock market losses have significantly heightened the uncertainties regarding the future economic development, particularly in the USA and Europe. The present forecast is based on the assumption that the stock markets will not suffer further losses: first, compared to the peak two...

Financial framework conditions for the expansion of world trade are set to improve over the coming years. Nominal dollar interest rates may head downwards, for two reasons: deceleration of U.S. growth, and a lowering of international credit costs required to stabilize the fragile debt situation...

The crisis in the Far East could depress the growth of Austria's exports by at most 0.5 percentage points and the expansion of real GDP by 0.1 percentage point to 0.2 percentage points, even under pessimistic assumptions. To the direct effects must be added the indirect effects resulting from...