We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...

We estimate a linear approximation of the market potential function derived in geography and trade models. Using a spatial econometric estimation approach, border effects can be identified by a differential impact of neighboring regions' purchasing power, depending on whether two regions are...

We construct a composite index to measure real activity of the Swiss economy on a weekly frequency. The index is based on a novel high-frequency data-set capturing economic activity across distinct dimensions over a long-time horizon. An adequate adjustment of raw data prior to deriving the...

We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct...

We propose a modelling approach involving a series of small-scale factor models. They are connected to each other within a cluster, whose linkages are derived from Granger-causality tests. GDP forecasts are established across the production, income and expenditure accounts within a disaggregated...