We propose a modelling approach involving a series of small-scale factor models. They are connected to each other within a cluster, whose linkages are derived from Granger-causality tests. GDP forecasts are established across the production, income and expenditure accounts within a disaggregated...

This paper analyzes optimizing decisions of a monopolist under uncertainty. The aspiration model directly accounts for asymmetric risk preferences with respect to downside risk. The optimal output (price) of a risk-averse monopolist facing marginal cost uncertainty will not exceed that of his...

By studying the effect of different patterns of demand in an evolutionary selection model this paper shows how product differentiation reduces competitive selection pressure and thus increases the chances for the coexistence of firms. With the example of a duopoly it shows that: (1) a monopoly...

We construct a composite index to measure real activity of the Swiss economy on a weekly frequency. The index is based on a novel high-frequency data-set capturing economic activity across distinct dimensions over a long-time horizon. An adequate adjustment of raw data prior to deriving the...

We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct...

We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...