This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share...

Tourist demand is subject to considerable variations, a fact which aggravates the development of forecast models of sufficiently adequate accuracy. This study develops models that permit including most if not all factors of influence. To this end, due consideration was given to calendar effects...