The dynamic structure of wheat acreage supply response is considerably more complex than previous studies have recognized. The distributed lag response is saw-toothed in its pattern, which is believed to eminate from the influence of summer fallow in crop rotations in the Great Plains. The...

Aggregate U.S. agricultural supply response is modeled through a modified partial adjustment model, where the effects of weather and other temporal stochastic effects are structured to be purely static, while the effects of price and technology, or trend, are dynamic. The model is applied to a...

A method based on stochastic dynamic programming is developed to derive efficiency frontiers for the trade-off between the long-run average social benefits and price variation. The method is used to quantify the importance of price variation per se as a criterion in U.S. wheat storage policy....

Statistical procedures are developed for reducing the number of autonomous state variables in stochastic dynamic optimization models when these variables follow a stationary process over time. These methods essentially delete part of the information upon which decisions are based while...

A heuristic criterion for choosing an acceptable level of bias in ridge regression is presented. The criterion is based on a noncentral F-test of the stochastic restrictions implicit in the ridge estimator. An appropriate significance level for the test is based on conjunctive use of strong and...

Technical progress in U.S. agriculture is evaluated using a new measure of productivity growth, flexible technical change. This measure allows for nonconstant returns to scale, market structures other than perfect competition, and time-varying coefficients. An integral part of the procedure is...