Seit 2022 sind Inflation und Zinsniveau in Deutschland merklich erhöht. Wir arbeiten mittels einer Szenarienrechnung die Auswirkung der höheren Preise und Zinsen auf die Finanzierungssalden der Kommunen in Nordrhein-Westfalen heraus und berücksichtigen dabei systematische Unterschiede...

The slight slowdown of consumer price infl ation in Germany in November does not yet constitute the beginning of lower infl ation rates. Even though energy prices are dragging infl ation, producer prices have drastically increased in the past year. Our estimates indicate that infl ation rates...

Die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB hat in vielen Ländern des Euroraums zu einem starken Anstieg der Wohnimmobilienpreise beigetragen. In einigen Mitgliedstaaten mündeten diese Übertreibungen am Wohnimmobilienmarkt bereits in Finanz- und Schuldenkrisen. Der Harmonisierte Verbraucherpreisindex...

Whereas strong demand is a key factor driving high inflation in the US, inflation in the Euro Area is mainly due to adverse external supply shocks (in Europe, energy prices are much higher due to the war in Ukraine). Standard monetary policy response to such shocks is to accommodate first-round...

The COVID-19 pandemic massively interrupted economic activity all over the world. Governments responded by running huge fiscal deficits (financed via central banks) to support firms and consumers, thereby injecting purchasing power into the private sector on a large scale. With no corresponding...

The sharp revisions in inflation forecasts are not rooted in analytical flaws, overly hesitant ECB policies or model failures. Energy price shocks of historic dimensions are the key factor. They have ended the prolonged phase of excessively weak inflation with risks now clearly increasing. In...