Germany should pay more attention to risks in procurement, manufacturing and sales in China. First, China’s population has been shrinking since 2022 and is rapidly ageing; this will cause its economic strength as well as production and consumption opportuni-ties to decrease. Secondly, the...

We collect more than eight million German-language tweets on the war in Ukraine and use a machine learning approach toconstruct a daily index of uncertainty about the war. In an empirical model, we show that fluctuations in uncertainty have strong effectson financial markets and real economic...

Sanctions and their effectiveness are at the centre of the discussion about an appropriate response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. At the latest since the atrocities of the war became evident and payment for gas supplies in roubles was brought into play, voices calling for a...

In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden...