This study provides a unied growth theory to correctly predictthe initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortalityand net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the courseof their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate...

This paper theoretically investigates how community approval or disapprovalaects school attendance and child labor and how aggregate behavior of thecommunity feeds back towards the formation and persistence of an anti- (or pro-)schooling norm. The proposed community-model continues to take...

We use a long panel data set for four entry cohorts into an internal labor market toanalyze the effect of age on the probability to participate in different training measures.We find that training participation probabilities are inverted u-shaped with age and thatlonger training measures are...

The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. Thispaper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majorityof whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis isthe most...

We consider a recently proposed class of nonlinear time series models and focus mainly onmisspecification testing for models of such type. Following the modeling cycle for nonlineartime series models of specification, estimation and evaluation we first treat how to choosean adequate transition...

In ESTAR models it is usually dfficult to determine parameter estimates, as it can be observedin the literature. We show that the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is aconsequence of the so-called identication problem, the problem of properly distinguishing thetransition function...

This paper develops a comprehensive endogenous growth framework to determinethe optimal mix of growth policies. The analysis is novel in that we captureimportant elements of the tax-transfer system and fully take into account transitionaldynamics in our numerical analysis. Currently, for...

The G20 summits in 2009 have proposed major changes in governance of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF). Most important seems to be the acknowledgment that the IMF in itscurrent form lacks legitimacy and ownership. Accordingly, the G20 suggests a reallocation ofvoting shares to emerging and...

We use a large linked employer-employee data set to analyze the importance of relativewage positions in the context of individual quit decisions as an inverse measure of jobsatisfaction. Our main findings are: (1) Workers with higher relative wage positionswithin their firms are on average more...

Atheoretical regression trees (ART) are applied to detect changes in the mean of a stationarylong memory time series when location and number are unknown. It is shownthat the BIC, which is almost always used as a pruning method, does not operate well inthe long memory framework.[...]