We develop a simple model to predict requests for the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) and compare these predictions to the actual allocations. The model suggests the amount of requested funds could total $750 billion, though this is likely a high watermark conditional on several assumptions....

The success of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain pandemics often depends greatly upon voluntary compliance with government guidelines. What explains variation in voluntary compliance? Using mobile phone and survey data, we show that during the early phases of COVID- 19, voluntary...