This paper assesses the contribution of monetary policy to the dynamics of bond real returns. We assume that the monetary authority controls the short-term nominal interest rate. We then model exogenously the joint dynamics of the aggregate endowment and the monetary policy variable, and...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...