We outline a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with trend extrapo-lation in asset pricing that we fit to quarterly U.S. macroeconomic time series with Baye-sian techniques. To be more precise, we modify the DSGE model in Smets and Wouters (2007) by incorporating asset traders...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

This paper explores how much firm-paid employee benefits and firms' financial conditions have contributed to delayed employment recoveries relative to output since 1990, using a DSGE model. Empirically, I document the underexplored pro-cyclicality of per worker benefit costs. Post-1990 period...

We define the notion of 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to account for the...

We define the notion of 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

Central bank credit has expanded dramatically since the beginning of 2007 in some of the euro area member countries. This paper makes two contributions to understand this stylized fact. First, we discuss a simple model of monetary policy that includes (i) a credit channel and (ii) a common pool...

In this paper we present an analysis of the impact of the great recession of the years 2008 and 2009 on the Austrian economy. For this purpose, we utilize the new estimated DSGE model of the OeNB for the Austrian economy within the Euro area. This model is a small open-economy version of Smets &...

This paper develops a small-scale two country model following the New Open Economy Macroecoenomics paradigm. Under autarky the model specializes to the familiar three equation New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We discuss two challenges to successful estimation of...