We develop a new estimation methodology for dynamic optimization models with unobserved state variables Our approach is semiparametric in the sense of not requiring explicit parametric assumptions to be made concerning the distribution of these unobserved state variables We propose a two-step...

This paper analyzes conditions under which various single-equation estimators are asymptotically normal in a simultaneous equations framework with many weak instruments. In particular, our paper adds to the many instruments asymptotic normality literature, including papers by Morimune (1983),...

We provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic bias (ABIAS) and mean squared error (AMSE) of the IV estimator, and obtain approximations thereof based on an asymptotic scheme which essentially requires the expectation of the first stage F-statistic to converge to a finite (possibly small)...

The literature has so far focused on the risk-return tradeoff in equity markets and ignored alternative risky assets. This paper is the first to examine the presence and significance of an intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the foreign exchange market. The paper provides...

China monetary policy, as well as its transmission, is yet to be understood by researchers and policymakers. In the spirit of Taylor (1993, 2000), we develop a tractable framework that approximates practical monetary policy of China. The framework, grounded in relevant institutional elements,...

Covariance matrix estimation and principal component analysis (PCA) are two cornerstones of multivariate analysis. Classic textbook solutions perform poorly when the dimension of the data is of a magnitude similar to the sample size, or even larger. In such settings, there is a common remedy for...

This paper revisits the methodology of Stein (1975, 1986) for estimating a covariance matrix in the setting where the number of variables can be of the same magnitude as the sample size. Stein proposed to keep the eigenvectors of the sample covariance matrix but to shrink the eigenvalues. By...

Inference on the long-run properties of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) consisting wholly of I(1) variables are made using Bayesian methods. In particular, the implications on the forecast and impulse response function distributions of directly estimating and restricting the drift parameters of...

This paper is a general investigation of temporal aggregation in time series analysis. It encompasses traditional research on time aggregation as a particular case and extends the analysis to irregular intervals of aggregation. The Data Generating Process is allowed to evolve at regular,...

I introduce a technique to estimate parameters in regressions with reduced rank parameters in a general setting. The framework can handle a general class of parameter restrictions and allows for specifications with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated regression errors. Applications of this...