Correlations of inflation with the growth rate of money increase when data are averaged over longer time periods …. Correlations of inflation with the growth of money also are higher when high-inflation as well as low-inflation countries are … included in the analysis. We show that serial correlation in the underlying inflation rate ties these two observations together …

financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals …. Our maximum likelihood estimates allow us to interpret observed inflation rates in terms of variations in the deficits … that cut inflation without reforming deficits. Our estimates also allow us to infer the deficit adjustments that seem to …

Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in US inflation Models with backward …-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes This paper seeks to overcome these … problems with a near-rational model of expectations In the model agents make univariate forecasts of inflation: they use …

inflation, particularly in the 1970s, and the choice of an exchange rate regime consistent with domestic monetary and fiscal … reminiscent of the global inflation generated by the weak dollar in the 1970s. …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice. …

increase in conservatism triggers two opposite effects. It reduces the inflation bias of discretionary monetary policy and …

The role of the exchange rate under inflation targeting (IT) remains an unresolved issue in literature and policy … whether there is a relation between the nominal exchange rate regime and inflation performance in IT countries. We use a panel … regime that differs from a pure float entails higher or lower inflation. We use two de facto foreign exchange regime …

of the two elements leads to an inflation bias that is independent of the standard time-inconsistency bias. Secondly, we … an independent monetary policy. We find that inflation was the main determinant of central bank credit prior to 2007 …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …