Showing 1 - 10 of 29
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the Unites States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960- 2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285786
This paper estimates the impact on the US economy of four types of uncertainty about (i) government spending, (ii) tax changes, (iii) public debt sustainability and (iv) monetary policy. Following a one standard deviation shock, uncertainty about debt sustainability has the largest and most...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010368163
adamant about preventing a rise in inflation? The large fiscal imbalance brings about inflationary pressures, triggering a … spiral of higher inflation, output contraction, and further debt accumulation. A coordinated commitment to inflate away the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030336
linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due … properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has … inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263206
Staggered prices are a fundamental building block of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In the standard model, prices are uniformly staggered but recent empirical evidence suggest that deviations from uniform staggering are common, This paper analyzes how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321439
of this analysis is that the model overestimates output persistence in high inflation countries and underestimates output … persistence in low inflation countries. This has important implications not only for this model, but also for any economist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280761
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327179
This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1 - 2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292150
The 2001 recession proved alarming to state government finances. A relatively shallow national recession led to a severe downturn in state revenues that took three years to unwind. In the current economic downturn, early signs of fiscal stress are already apparent. This raises several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292158
This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open-economy model of the Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model assumes uncorrelated shocks across countries and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292184