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Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks

Burgstaller, Johann - 2006

Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294615

Marriage, Divorce and Interstate Risk Sharing

Halla, Martin; Scharler, Johann - 2008

In this paper we study the importance of marriage for interstate risk sharing. We find that US states in which married couples account for a higher share of the population are less exposed to state-specific output shocks. Thus, marriages do not just improve the allocation of risk at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294898

Default Risk Premium and Aggregate Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy

Çakıcı, S. Meral - 2011

in addition to the exogenously given world interest rate offered by the foreign bond issuers. It is shown that, under …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500196

Do world shocks drive domestic business cycles? Some evidence from structural estimation

Lubik, Thomas; Teo, Wing Leong - 2005

Existing results on the contribution of terms of trade and world interest rate shocks to output fluctuations in small … vastly different results. In this paper, we overcome this by estimating a DSGE model using a structural Bayesian estimation … cross-equation restrictions implied by the structural model. We find that world interest rate shocks are the main driving …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293453

Supply shocks and the persistence of inflation

Sommer, Martin - 2002

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My empirical results suggest that the difference between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489

Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations

Alexius, Annika; Holmlund, Bertil - 2007

A widely spread belief among economists is that monetary policy has relatively short-lived effects on real variables such as unemployment. Previous studies indicate that monetary policy affects the output gap only at business cycle frequencies, but the effects on unemployment may well be more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321638

How do crises affect schooling decisions? Evidence from changing labor market opportunities and a policy experiment

López Bóo, Florencia - 2008

This paper examines the effect of labor market opportunities on schoolingemployment decisions in 12 urban areas in Argentina over 12 years, emphasizing the recession/crisis years 1998-2002. Over 'typical' years deteriorating job rates increase the probability of attending school and decrease the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278225

Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Model: A DSGE-VAR Approach for Switzerland

Bäurle, Gregor; Menz, Tobias - 2008

We study the transmission of monetary shocks and monetary policy with a behavioral model, corrected for potential misspecification using the DSGE-VAR framework elaborated by DelNegro and Schorfheide (2004). In particular, we investigate if the central bank should react to movements in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430077

A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe

Feldkircher, Martin - 2013

This paper puts forward a global macro model comprising 43 countries and covering the period from Q1 1995 to Q4 2011. Our regional focus is on countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Applying a global VAR (GVAR) model, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370102

Productivity shocks, long-term contracts and earnings dynamics

Balke, Neele; Lamadon, Thibaut - 2021

This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment in an economy with search frictions and firm commitment. We develop an equilibrium search model with worker and firm shocks and characterize the optimal contract offered by competing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013394333