Showing 1 - 10 of 10
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
hence the benefits of a reform. It also increases unemployment variability, which increases the precautionary benefits of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321824
unemployment. Our model succeeds in replicating the empirical fact of a downward sloping Phillips curve for low inflation rates and … consumption, more attractive. Less consumption is associated with less output and therefore higher unemployment. To the contrary … increase in unemployment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026513
application of mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551686
This paper explores the evolution and determinants of public support for the euro since its creation in 1999 until the end of 2017, thereby covering the pre-crisis experience of the euro, the crisis years and the recent recovery. Using uniquely large macro and micro databases and applying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208809
We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using … anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and … unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012631633
facing exogenous differences in the job finding and separation rates. We use our setting to study the racial unemployment gap … two groups both in the level and volatility of unemployment. We show that the racial unemployment gap is counter … unemployment is above average the gap increases by 0.6pp more than when aggregate unemployment is below average. In terms of policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014333776
curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the … relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on … Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480477
chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation-unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280760
We study possible factors behind the subdued inflation in the United States since the mid-1990s. A standard expectations-augmented Phillips curve does not exhibit structural breaks. However, a wage-price spiral comprising wage growth, consumer price inflation and producer price inflation shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143580