variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are … macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while …

Correlations of inflation with the growth rate of money increase when data are averaged over longer time periods …. Correlations of inflation with the growth of money also are higher when high-inflation as well as low-inflation countries are … included in the analysis. We show that serial correlation in the underlying inflation rate ties these two observations together …

financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals …. Our maximum likelihood estimates allow us to interpret observed inflation rates in terms of variations in the deficits … that cut inflation without reforming deficits. Our estimates also allow us to infer the deficit adjustments that seem to …