earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are consistent both with the view that inflation dynamics are forward … relevant determinant of inflation. We show that this is an important factor contributing to the weak identification of the …

In this paper I evaluate inflation targeting for ten countries. The evaluation is based on unconditional as well as … conditional measures of the variance of inflation around target. With strict inflation targeting, expectations of the future … Price Index (CPI) when calculating the inflation rate, I find that the null hypothesis can be rejected for six of ten …

financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals …. Our maximum likelihood estimates allow us to interpret observed inflation rates in terms of variations in the deficits … that cut inflation without reforming deficits. Our estimates also allow us to infer the deficit adjustments that seem to …

Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in US inflation Models with backward …-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes This paper seeks to overcome these … problems with a near-rational model of expectations In the model agents make univariate forecasts of inflation: they use …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …