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Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293481
increase in conservatism triggers two opposite effects. It reduces the inflation bias of discretionary monetary policy and … hence the benefits of a reform. It also increases unemployment variability, which increases the precautionary benefits of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321824
unemployment. Our model succeeds in replicating the empirical fact of a downward sloping Phillips curve for low inflation rates and … an upward sloping curve for high inflation rates. The reason is that low inflation rates make saving, as opposed to … consumption, more attractive. Less consumption is associated with less output and therefore higher unemployment. To the contrary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026513
There is a body of literature that favors universal and unconditional public assurance policies over those that are targeted and means-tested. Two such proposalsthe basic income proposal and job guaranteesare discussed here. The paper evaluates the impact of each program on macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266448
inflation in most of the EU member states. At the same time, wages-in part, wages of the unskilled-are relatively losing ground … extent recent inflation trends are attributable to the constraints imposed by the monetary union-namely negative demand … impact of seasonal effects on inflation, in the context of the Greek socalled traditional petit-bourgeois capitalism. Fourth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276238
application of mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551686
As a bottom-up approach, a Job Guarantee policy can tackle the issue of unemployment on the macroeconomic … case of Germany. A Job Guarantee's impact on inflation depends on excess production capacities of economic sectors as well … even contribute to reaching the inflation target and prevent deflation. However, deficiencies of the European institutional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307675
This paper explores the evolution and determinants of public support for the euro since its creation in 1999 until the end of 2017, thereby covering the pre-crisis experience of the euro, the crisis years and the recent recovery. Using uniquely large macro and micro databases and applying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208809
We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using … anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and … unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012631633