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Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293481
chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation-unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280760
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth," describing the … permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281025
This paper combines matching frictions with e¢ ciency wages to deter shirking in a model that is estimated for the USA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318955
Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) document that excess returns on the stock market are puzzlingly higher under Democratic presidential administrations. We examine whether differences in economic fundamentals can account for this presidential puzzle. We find that the role for fundamentals crucially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318988
This paper estimates voters' response to municipality and regional level unemployment and economic growth, in Swedish … reduction in regional unemployment by one percentage point is associated with an increase in the support for the national … government by about 0.8 and 1.1 percentage points. Changes in unemployment and growth at the municipality level seem to have much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321613
increase in conservatism triggers two opposite effects. It reduces the inflation bias of discretionary monetary policy and … hence the benefits of a reform. It also increases unemployment variability, which increases the precautionary benefits of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321824
unemployment. Our model succeeds in replicating the empirical fact of a downward sloping Phillips curve for low inflation rates and … an upward sloping curve for high inflation rates. The reason is that low inflation rates make saving, as opposed to … consumption, more attractive. Less consumption is associated with less output and therefore higher unemployment. To the contrary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026513
There is a body of literature that favors universal and unconditional public assurance policies over those that are targeted and means-tested. Two such proposalsthe basic income proposal and job guaranteesare discussed here. The paper evaluates the impact of each program on macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266448