variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are … macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …

If firms borrow working capital to finance production, then nominal interest rates have a direct influence on inflation … empirical importance in explaining inflation dynamics in the US and in the euro area. …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …