The performance of a simple monetary policy rule, which does not rely on explicit information about the output gap but instead uses the change in the rate of inflation as a proxy for the output gap, is explored in a simple model of the US economy. The rule is found to outperform an optimised...

We analyze the performance and robustness of some common simple rules for monetary policy in a New-Keynesian open economy model under different assumptions about the exchange rate model. Adding the exchange rate to an optimized Taylor rule gives only small improvements in terms of economic...

This paper discusses the optimal use of inflation forecasts in an inflation targeting setting with reaction and implementation lags. It distinguishes between the optimality of history-dependence versus forward-lookingness in monetary policymaking. It is shown that monetary policy strategy is...

The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium term inflation target for the US economy are estimated over the period 1983-2005. The estimation is conducted within the New-Keynesian framework using Bayesian and Kalman-filter estimation techniques. With the...

We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the...

We argue that the correct identification of monetary policy shocks in a vector autoregression requires that the identification scheme distinguishes between permanent and transitory monetary policy shocks. The permanent shocks reflect changes in the inflation target while the transitory shocks...