This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …

's Research Department prior to the Board meetings Using Greenbook forecasts allows calculation of future inflation shocks as …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …

increase in conservatism triggers two opposite effects. It reduces the inflation bias of discretionary monetary policy and …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias … corrects the bias and brings inflation back on target. Adopting this asymmetric rule improves welfare and reduces the risk of …