Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a …

This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we … need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect … composite consumer price index (CCPI) was the best measure of inflation, and should be used to construct the real effective …

inflation. Taking as given the paths of nominal labor compensation and labor productivity to approximate the evolution of …

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth," describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation and … permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the Unites States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960- 2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …

programming problem implies that the monetary authority’s inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. The … authors’ estimates attribute the rise and fall of post-World War II inflation in the United States to an intricate interaction … and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. That misperception caused a sharp rise in …

The role of the exchange rate under inflation targeting (IT) remains an unresolved issue in literature and policy … whether there is a relation between the nominal exchange rate regime and inflation performance in IT countries. We use a panel … regime that differs from a pure float entails higher or lower inflation. We use two de facto foreign exchange regime …

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the … inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and …

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves … describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current … inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM …