-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice. …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …

inflation as one component of future real wages. This paper scrutinizes whether countries in CEE that officially announce an … inflation target are tempted to act time-inconsistently and switch from the announced inflation target to an exchange rate … target in order to sustain higher output via surprise inflation. If market participants discover the time-inconsistency, they …

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European … well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in …

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves … describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current … inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under generalized methods of moments (GMM …

earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are consistent both with the view that inflation dynamics are forward … relevant determinant of inflation. We show that this is an important factor contributing to the weak identification of the …

chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation …