We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

Using ten years of FX transactions data we demonstrate that a large share of the FX forward discount bias can be accounted for by order flow. A simple microstructure-based decomposition suggests that order flow creates a timevarying risk premium that is correlated with the forward discount. The...

In this paper we present a dynamic discrete-time model that allows to investigate the impact of risk-aversion in an oligopoly characterized by a homogeneous non-storable good, sticky prices and uncertainty. Our model nests the classical dynamic oligopoly model with sticky prices by Fershtman and...