This paper presents a model yielding testable implications concerning the long-run co-movements of real exchange rates, relative productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with higher productivity, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated...

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other...

This paper identifies the absence of both sub-continentally oriented histories which knit together the land and sea trades, and convincing explanations of the persistence of the Indo-Central Asian trade (for example) despite the growing Indo-European trade from the seventeenth-century. The...

Statistical analysis of Greek sovereign debt denominated in gold and traded on the London Stock Exchange from the outbreak of the First World War until the advent of the Great Depression is employed to explore the way that historical events including political and institutional changes shaped...

Much of the literature on economic change in the post-1945 world is permeated by two ideas: the temporal convergence of per capita incomes across economies and the spatial advance of free trade. For many economists and historians the two are linked: the reduction of trade barriers in the...

During the two decades after the Second World War, international tradeexpanded at its most rapid pace of the twentieth century. Between 1948 and1968, the total volume of merchandise exports from non-communist countriesgrew by a remarkable 290 percent. 2 And the growth of world trade during...

This paper develops a monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms tostudy the interaction between technology adoption and trade in a world of two countriesfacing different technology adoption costs. It shows that a reduction in the technologyadoption cost in one country increases the...

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisinglyfragile, as shown in a number of other papers. After demonstrating this empiricalsensitivity, we address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationshipis nonlinear. Following the endogenous...

This paper analyses trade specialisation dynamics in two Eastern European countries(Romania and Bulgaria – EEC-2) vis-à-vis the core EU member states (EU-15) over theperiod 1990-2006. Specifically, we focus on whether there is a shift towards intra-industrytrade leading to economic...

This paper presents a new method to detect informed trading activities in the options markets.An option trade is identified as informed when it is characterized by an unusual largeincrement in open interest and volume, induces large gains, and is not hedged in the stock market.For the period...