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We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. The model is confronted with the U.S. macroeconomic time series. Our estimated model can account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, the land price and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397671
Previous studies on financial frictions have been unable to establish the empirical significance of credit constraints in macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper argues that the muted impact of credit constraints stems from the absence of a mechanism to explain the observed persistent comovements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292216
We argue that positive comovements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the comovements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: we introduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292308
comparison with the 1985-2006 period. The time varying DSGE model with financial frictions improves the accuracy of forecasts of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460776
volatility of the shocks. We also show that allowing for time variation improves considerably density forecasts in comparison to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460777
We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661565
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661568
The number of employees historically filed and registered from January to April 2020 for short-time compensation is used to obtain a nowcast for GDP growth in the first quarter and an outlook until the third quarter 2021. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012671248
We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373835
We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. Individual belief is modeled by a state variable that defines an individual's perceived laws of motion. We use a New Keynesian Model that is solved with a quadratic approximation hence individual decisions are quadratic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011739596