This study tests for forward-looking moral hazard in the social insurance system by exploiting a 1991 reform in Sweden. The replacement rate was reduced for short absences but not for long absences, which introduced a potential future cost of returning to work. Using this exogenous variation in...

We provide a framework for the estimation of the impact of fertility timing on female long-term labor supply, measured as labor market work duration. We show that the genuine treatment is waiting time to birth rather than birth per se. In the application we control for the joint decision of...

This paper exploits a government initiative to analyze the effect of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for individuals with mild or moderate mental illness and multidisciplinary treatment (MDT) for individuals with pain in back and shoulders. We employ a propensity score matching approach to...

We estimate means and distributions of ex-ante treatment effects for obtaining university education relative to high school. To achieve this, we conducted a survey which elicited earnings expectations associated with counterfactual educational choices for a sample of highschool students in...

Proxy variables are often used in linear regression models with the aim of removing potential confounding bias. In this paper we formalise proxy variables within the potential outcome framework, giving conditions under which it can be shown that causal effects are nonparametrically identified....