The number of employees historically filed and registered from January to April 2020 for short-time compensation is used to obtain a nowcast for GDP growth in the first quarter and an outlook until the third quarter 2021. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to...

Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we generalize their approach to consider forecast density combinations and...

We build a time varying DSGE model with financial frictions in order to evaluate changes in the responses of the macroeconomy to financial friction shocks. Using US data, we find that the transmission of the financial friction shock to economic variables, such as output growth, has not changed...