We estimate a range of New Keynesian import price models for Norway and the UK. Contrary to standard pass-through regression analysis, this approach allows us to make a distinction between the parameters in theoretical price-setting rules and parameters in the expectations mechanisms. We find...

In this paper we investigate the formation of Norwegian import prices of manufactures over the period 1970(1)-1998(3), thereby extending the sample period used in the study by Naug and Nymoen (1996). If international goods markets are perfectly integrated and the law of one price holds, then for...

In "Economics and Reality" (1997) Tony Lawson advocates a perspective on social reality labelled critical realism. Critical realism maintains that strict regularities between observable events are the exception rather than the rule in the social world. This is a negative argument for...

We investigate optimal horizons for targeting inflation in response to different shocks and their properties under alternative preferences of an inflation-targeting central bank. Our analysis is based on a well specified macroeconometric model of Norway, but we examine how alternative...

We argue that the correct identification of monetary policy shocks in a vector autoregression requires that the identification scheme distinguishes between permanent and transitory monetary policy shocks. The permanent shocks reflect changes in the inflation target while the transitory shocks...

In an influential paper Engel (1999. Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes, Journal of Political Economy 107, 507-538) argues that essentially all the fluctuations in the real exchange rate can be attributed to fluctuations in the relative price of traded goods, and that only a small...

We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and boundary...

A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. (2010). Existing studies of this forecasting strategy exclude Dynamic...

We estimate a small open-economy DSGE model for Norway with two specifications of monetary policy: a simple instrument rule and optimal policy based on an intertemporal loss function. The empirical fit of the model with optimal policy is as good as the model with a simple rule. This result is...