This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My empirical results suggest that the difference between...

Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation pressuresthat are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks and some...

The two main empirical regularities regarding US postwar nominal and real business cycles are the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation. While the volatility of financial price variables also follows such pattern, financial quantity variables have experienced a continuous immoderation. We...

Economic theory commonly distinguishes between different time horizons such as the short run and the long run, each with its own relationships and its own dynamics. Engle (1974) proposed a bandspectrum regression to estimate such models. This paper proposes a new estimator for non-stationary...

In economics it is common to distinguish between different time horizons (i.e. short run, medium run, and long run). Engle (1974) proposed combining the discrete Fourier transform with a band spectrum regression to estimate models that separates between different time horizons. In this paper we...

Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer-von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time series conditional distribution models using a novel approach, which embeds the empirical...

We derive necessary and suffcient conditions for simple monetary policy rules that guarantee equilibrium determinacy in the New Keynesian monetary model. Our modeling framework is derived from a fully specified optimization model that is still amenable to analytical characterisation. The...